Democrats enjoying upswing in Duval

The Florida Times-Union

October 5, 2008

By DAVID HUNT,
The Times-Union

Think Florida. The dimpled and hanging chads. The recount. A razor-thin 537-vote margin leaning toward the Republican presidential nominee eight years ago.
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Now think Duval County. A Democrat-heavy voter base that tends to swing conservative. A land where voters have proven George W. Bush could flex political muscle against Al Gore and John Kerry without breaking a sweat.

This time, analysts foresee a Democratic surge here, making the county a lynchpin in the battle for Florida's 27 electoral votes - 10 percent of what a candidate needs to win the presidency.

The reasons: An expected rise in black voters as well as the star power Democratic candidate Barack Obama showed last month drawing 20,000 people to a Jacksonville rally.

With recent news that GOP candidate John McCain's campaign was pulling up stakes in Michigan, essentially forfeiting the battleground's 17 electoral votes, Florida has become ever more crucial.

"McCain has to win Florida. Obama could lose the state and still win the election," explained Matthew Corrigan, political science chairman at the University of North Florida.

That has local Republicans scrambling. The nation's breaking point could be right here.

"I would say everybody inclined to vote for Sen. McCain or Gov. [Sarah] Palin absolutely must cast that ballot," said Duval County Republican Chairman John Falconetti. "This is going to be extremely close."

So close that, if Duval County is a photo finish in favor of the GOP, the Democrats could still win the state, said Henry Thomas, a UNF political science professor.

"The African-American turnout is going to be substantial. Whether it's going to turn Duval blue is up for debate, but it could be enough for the state when combined with the South Florida Democratic vote," Thomas said.

Duval County election records show about 6,000 African-Americans have registered to vote since mid-September, pushing the total to nearly 136,000.

But between the primary and general elections of 2004, nearly 20,000 black voters registered, records show. About 68 percent of them voted that November, compared to 77 percent of white voters, as Bush beat Kerry to retain the presidency.

"Duval County was supposed to be huge in 2004, but we didn't see it. I think it may have been there wasn't as much excitement in the African-American community. Obviously, that's changed," said Daniel Smith, a University of Florida political science professor.

Smith said the Democrats have been aggressive in the search for new voters. Also, a generational shift taking shape in South Florida has Latino voters - many of them Cubans who'd been voting Republican since the Kennedy administration - going blue.

Duval County Supervisor of Elections Jerry Holland said he's bracing for an 85 percent overall voter turnout. That would trump 2004's turnout by more than 10 percentage points.

Holland said the shift will be prompted largely by a surge in black voters - who in off-presidential years generally have a 40 percent showing. During the August primary, which had voters picking in an array of state and city races, black turnout was less than 16 percent.

"What always made Duval interesting is diversity," Holland said. "This election will have a lot more to do with who comes out to vote."

Although a recent poll commissioned by the Times-Union and South Florida SunSentinel showed black voters favoring Obama by a 9-1 ratio, the racial lines aren't always clear in the neighborhoods.

Tucked away off New Kings Road in the Northside is a precinct known on paper as 10J, where black voters outnumber white ones 2,624 to 20. Campaign signs are scarce along the modest side streets, and many of the neighbors did not want to talk about voting.

Charles Blocker, a 48-year-old African-American voter, said Obama has his vote but race has nothing to do with it.

"I'd rather have the best candidate, whether that be McCain or Obama, but I think Obama has made more efforts to reach out to people in communities like this," Blocker said.

Robert Foster, president of the College Republicans at UNF, said he has youth on his side in the fight for a GOP win.

In the past week, he said his group has helped register 200 students to vote - 195 of them registered Republican.

"I think we're really lucky at UNF to have conservative students," he said. "I'm expecting another close one in Florida, and we need to get as many existing voters and register as many new voters as we can."

Regardless of demographics, Holland is expecting a busy day at the polls. He's hiring 3,200 poll workers - 600 more than he uses in off-presidential years.

He's also trying to persuade at least 100,000 voters - about one-fifth of Duval's registration - to vote early or by absentee ballot to reduce the wait at the booths.

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WHY Duval could turn blue In the past two elections, Duval County was George W. Bush country. This year, political scientists are theorizing the buzz over Barack Obama in Jacksonville could help turn Florida from red to blue. They point to the following factors: New voters If newly registered voters turn out to the polls, it would amount to an influx of voters that are younger and less Republican than the overall Jacksonville electorate. More than half of all people who registered to vote in 2008 here were younger than 30. As of Sept. 15, more than 13 percent of all registered voters younger than 30 had registered to vote in the past nine months. About 44 percent of all newly registered voters between Jan. 1 and Sept. 15 were Democrats, according to a Times-Union analysis of voter registrations in Duval County. Just 26 percent were Republican; another 20 percent registered with no party affiliation. Black turnout As of Friday there were about 136,000 black registered voters in Duval County, according to the voter rolls. Of those who were registered before the 2004 election, about 80,000 turned out. Based on exit polls, most voted for Democrat John Kerry. Some have predicted that black turnout will be higher than the more anemic 2000 and 2004 elections, where black voters turned out about 10 percentage points less than white voters. Assuming that turnout increases to 85 percent, adding the slightly higher rate of new registrations among black voters, it could add another 30,000 votes. Young voters Many experts have predicted turnout will increase among younger voters. If 80 percent of the newly registered voters younger than 30 - or about 82,000 people - vote, it could amount to an extra 20,000 votes compared to historical average turnout figures for that age group. A recent national poll found voters 18 to 29 years old favor Obama 58 percent over 39 percent for McCain. That would add over 11,000 votes. Independent voters Voters identified as having no party affiliation constitute about 18 percent, or 90,000 people, of the voter rolls. If they split along the lines found by a recent statewide poll (with independents favoring Obama 52 percent to 40 percent for McCain) that would amount to an 11,000 vote advantage for Obama. The upshot, some experts said, is that the 2008 election just might be a toss-up. Deirdre Conner/The Times-Union